Campaign Math (Markov Chain)
P(win | a,d) =
Σ P(out) × P(win | a−ℓᵃ, d−ℓᵈ)
Each battle is a Markov chain: outcome depends only on current armies. Solved backwards via dynamic programming from base cases up.
P(win | a, 0) = 1.000
P(win | 1, d) = 0.000
Now: —